Making decisions under the risks and uncertainties of future climates

Media type: 
Reports
Author/s: 
Alan Randall
Tim Capon
Todd Sanderson
Danielle Merrett
Greg Hertzler
Samantha Capon
Institution/s: 
University of Sydney
Griffith University
State: 
New South Wales
Year: 
2012

This final report aims to improve our understanding of gaps between climate science outputs and decision makers’ needs, and suggests frameworks and tools that may be useful to decision makers.

Because climate is a key driver of complex human and natural systems, climate change alters the structure of decision problems in important areas of private and public life. This project was motivated by a perception that a ‘gap’ exists between climate science output and end-user needs. End-users of climate science information typically are charged with planning and/or managing some subset of human and natural systems at a local or regional scale. Thus there are at least three sources of a possible ‘gap’:

  • from an end-user perspective,  climate science outputs might be too inaccurate and/or imprecise;
  • they may be pertinent to more aggregated systems, perhaps at a larger geographical scale, than those for which most end-users are responsible; and,
  • they may be only one among many kinds of information that end-users must consider in making decisions about the complex human and natural systems they are tasked with managing.

This project was designed to address these issues by improving our understanding of any gaps that may exist between climate science outputs and the needs of decision makers, and suggesting decision making frameworks and tools that may be useful to decision makers.

Please cite as follows: 

Randall, A, Capon, T, Sanderson, T, Merrett, D & Hertzler, G 2012, Making decisions under the risks and uncertainties of future climates, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 66 pp.

 

Learn more about the project: Understanding end-user decisions and the value of climate information under the risks and uncertainties of future climates

Read the Practioner's Handbook: Choosing a decision-making framework to manage uncertainty in climate adaptation decision-making: a practitioner’s handbook

Try the online guide to decision-making under climate uncertainty: Climate Change Adaptation Decisions.

 

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