Adaptative Capacity Synthesis Project

An assessment of the nature and utility of adaptive capacity research

Wheatfarmers Image: USDAVulnerability to climate change can be described as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (Allen Consulting 2005 after IPCC 2001). However, as evidenced by the volume of publications in journals such as Science and Nature, the focus of the science of climate change has been dominated by research on exposure. There has been a recent increase in studies and publications on adaptive capacity, yet there has been no assessment of the nature of adaptive capacity research, or on the utility of the concept for decision-making. Thus the goal of the project is to assess the interpretation and approach to adaptive capacity research among a range of disciplines, and to assess the utility of the concept for decision-making, in order to make recommendations to improve synergies between climate change adaptation researchers and decision makers. The project will actively involve stakeholders through an online survey and key informant interviews.

 Objectives
  • Assess the interpretation and approach to adaptive capacity research among a range of disciplines;
  • Critique case studies in which an attempt is made to assess adaptive capacity of a community, region or sector
  • Assess the utility of the concept of adaptive capacity for decision-making on adaptation policy and planning; and
  • Develop recommendations to improve synergies between climate change adaptation researchers and decision makers.
 
Methods
The methods for the project consist of three parts: (i) literature review; (ii) online survey; and (iii) key informant interviews.
 
Literature review
The literature review will include both academic and “grey” literature and will form a report that: (i) includes a bibliography of relevant literature; (ii) an annotated bibliography of selected key publications (about 50); and (iii) a critical review of the literature that describes the nature and form of adaptive capacity research internationally. This literature review will also review case studies in which an attempt was made to assess the adaptive capacity of a community, region or sector. The literature review will be used to develop the concepts to be explored through the online survey. The literature review will also help to identify the researchers to be targeted for key informant interviews.
 
Online survey
An online survey will be used to gather data on approaches to adaptive capacity research. By using this approach the breadth of issues can be elicited via the short on-line survey, which will then form the themes of the in-depth interviews with key informants. While the response rate of the on-line survey is difficult to estimate (link to be distributed through relevant networks such as the national adaptation research network for socio-economic and institutional dimensions), it expected that several hundred researchers will be invited to participate. The quantitative responses to the survey (eg. how many studies, how many participants, etc.) will be analysed through basic statistical techniques using Excel, while the qualitative responses will be analysed for emerging concepts and concept mapping using the software packages NVivo and Leximancer respectively. The online survey will enable the analysis of discipline-specific conceptions of adaptive capacity and perceptions of the utility of the concept to decision-making.
 
Key informant interviews
Key informant interviews will be used to explore some of the themes that emerged through the online survey. It is anticipated that about 20 key informants will be selected for in-depth telephone interviews. While the key informants will be mostly researchers, some decision makers and research clients will also be included. The key informant interviews will be transcribed and then coded using the software package NVivo. A concept mapping analysis will also be conducted using the software package Leximancer. The key informant interviews will be used to explore the conceptualisation and approaches to adaptive capacity, and its perceived utility for decision-making. The key informant interviews will also be used to gauge the relevance of the initial recommendations to improve the synergies between adaptive capacity researchers and decision makers.
 

Project Contacts:

Prof Tim Smith
Principal Investigator
University of the Sunshine Coast
email

Daniel Stock,
Research Coordinator
NCCARF
email