Dengue transmission under climate change in Northern Australia: linking ecological and population based models to develop adaptive strategies
Adaptation Research Grants Program
Dengue is a mosquito-borne Flavivirus. The health impact in Australia is increasing. Epidemics have become more frequent in North Queensland with over 1,000 cases and one death in the most recent epidemic. There is no generally accepted model of the relation between climate, other determinants, and dengue for Australia. We will develop such a model.
The principal aims are:
1. To determine the relation between climate and dengue transmission in Australia, use this information to develop the optimal predictive model, which will then be used to estimate the impact of impending climate change on: (i) total dengue disease burden, (ii) the geographic range of dengue transmission, and (iii) health system impacts including the availability of donor blood supply.
2. To use these estimates of predicted impacts to develop adaptive strategies to reduce the future disease risks and burden associated with dengue.
3. To achieve Principal Aim 1, we will:
a. Collect and link data to develop new statistical models for the relationship between climatic and related variables and the occurrence of dengue in North Queensland.
b. Assess the validity of an existing model (DENSiM , i.e. Dengue Simulation Model) of that relationship, for use in North Queensland.
c. Determine which of the above models (1. or 2.) is the most accurate tool for predicting future dengue incidence, in relation to projected climatic conditions, by comparing their ‘back-casting’ performance (i.e. validity) against past climate data and dengue incidence (for Cairns and Townsville, 1990-2010).
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