Risk communication and behavioural change

A Carter
Ministry for the Environment, New Zealand.

Managed retreat is defined as any strategic decision to withdraw, relocate or abandon private or public assets that are at risk of being impacted by hazards. The alternative would generally be a considerable increase in protection works.

Hard structures such as seawalls or stopbanks have traditionally been the preferred method for protecting existing development from hazards in New Zealand. Experience has shown, however, that in many situations hard structures are not an environmentally sustainable, reliable or cost-effective method for reducing risk from natural hazards, especially when the effects of climate change are taken into account. Furthermore, when people are protected by hard structures they tend to invest in higher value activities in the protected area. This leads to increased damages and costs when an event larger than the protection occurs or if the structure fails, with the costs borne not only by the property owners but also the community at large.

For these reasons managed retreat policies are increasingly being considered as an alternative to the use of hard structures. However, attempts at implementation of managed retreat have often been met with considerable opposition from affected property owners and have created conflict within communities.

This presentation will use case studies from New Zealand to examine how issues associated with managed retreat are being communicated to affected communities.

The presentation will feature a successful case study where risks and other matters were effectively communicated to support a voluntary managed retreat project. The outcome of the project was that the Waitakere City Council was able to purchase over 80 houses from areas facing increasing risk from flooding, rather than continue to invest in flood protection works. Particular attention will be paid to key messages, communication channels and messengers used in this project, and how these influenced the audience’s reception and project outcomes.

Presentation (PDF)

C D Button
Department of Geographical and Environmental Studies, The University of Adelaide, Australia

Public risk perception is playing an increasingly important role in shaping environmental policy and management response systems, in part through the realisation that adaptation must seek to incorporate important social and cultural values. Increasingly, in this respect, the management of climate change risks are being subjected to public debate and input, consequently, perceptions of these risks are of considerable interest to local planners and decision makers. Recent media coverage of the potential risks that climate change imposes on Australia’s populations, such as that detailed in the recent senate inquiry, ‘Managing our coastal zone in a changing climate’, and Department of Climate Change report, ‘Climate change risk to Australia’s coast’, have contributed to an increased public awareness of such risks. Several research priorities emanating from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plans detail the need to evaluate the perceptions of risk at the local level, as well as to assess the expectations, behaviour and adaptive capacity of communities so as to develop appropriate and socially acceptable adaptation strategies.

This research is attempting to examine the role that perceptions of climate change risk have in creating a willingness to support policy initiatives and adapt to climate change. Utilising representative samples of two Australian non- metropolitan coastal local governments, analysis of data obtained from a mail-out survey indicates an optimism bias amongst property owners in the two regions. Specifically that their personal risk is perceived to be less than the risk faced by others in the same situation, and less than that faced by the community as a whole. Interestingly, respondents showed strong concern about climate change, perceived climatic changes to be highly likely to occur in the very near future, and agreed that disruption to homes, the community, as well as beach and foreshore areas was likely as a result of such climatic changes. This has implications for behavioural change, and hence, proactive adaptation and vulnerability reduction since adaptive capacity will not necessarily translate into adaptive action to begin with. Also, due to the apparent presence of underestimations of personal risk and high levels of self-efficacy in regards to autonomous adaptation, this suggests that it will lead to a significant number of the population believing themselves to be exempt from future risks. This is despite their belief that risks are, and will be, present and that future change is highly likely.

It is clear from these results that certain heuristics, which serve to simplify one’s decision making during times of uncertainty, are present in responses and have contributed to respondents’ perceptions of climate change risks.

This paper will present preliminary research findings and discuss the relationship between the demographic, attitudinal and social contextual variables associated with respondents’ perceptions of climate change risk. In particular, this paper will detail gaps and trends apparent from the survey’s analysis of respondents’ perceptions. Further, this paper will discuss how this might help us to better inform the public of risk, and policy-makers of the way the public perceive risk, such that adaptation responses are framed more appropriately.

Presentation (PDF)

S Lata and P D Nunn
School of Islands and Oceans, The University of the South Pacific, Fiji
Office of the Vice Chancellor, The University of the South Pacific, Fiji

At the forefront of threats emanating from changing climates are the people of the developing world, where the effectiveness of environmental policy and top-down decision-making to bring about appropriate and sustained adaptation is being increasingly doubted. Having their own set of shorter-term socio-economic challenges, people of the developing world often fail to perceive the risks associated with future climate change. The wealth of literature, mainly from the developed world, concerning public perception of climate change demonstrates the importance of risk perception in responding and adapting to climate change. Adaptive strategies in developing countries can be implemented successfully only through community empowerment, to which an understanding of the perceptions of climate risk is essential.

Pacific Island Countries are a particularly vulnerable region of the developing world owing to their comparative smallness, remoteness, fragility of ecosystems, limited resources, and heavy dependence on marine and coastal resources. In most parts of the Pacific, coastal ecosystems and communities are already experiencing changes in the natural environment as sea-level rise erodes coastlines and king tides inundate agricultural and freshwater lands. Using data from a survey of households and stakeholders, this paper discusses research on climate change risk perception undertaken in the Fiji Islands. The case study area is the Rewa Delta, in south-east Viti Levu, the largest island of the Fiji group. The Rewa delta is a low- lying area and is naturally exposed to sea-surges and river flooding. It has a population of >100,000, mostly indigenous Fijians occupying their traditional land along river banks. Livelihoods involve a heavy reliance on the river and the sea for subsistence.

The results obtained show that climate change is not perceived as an issue of high concern by the people of the Rewa Delta. Although many of the respondents have heard of the term, most commonly from the media, most are not aware of the nature of changes and the risks associated with climate change. Even though changes are evident in the natural environment in the form of increased erosion, king tides and inundation, people commonly see these as something normaland natural – something they cannot do much about – which they feel it is happening because god is punishing them. The communities do not plan to re-locate even if threats intensify due to their strong cultural links with the land they occupy. Risk perception is centered more on short- term climate variability and is thus a barrier for longer-term climate-change adaptation in the Rewa Delta. The results imply that appropriate methods of risk communication, using vernacular languages and indigenous concepts, are important for promoting adaptation among such communities. An understanding of risk perception among vulnerable human communities is essential before developing specific climate-change adaptation solutions.

Presentation (PDF)

J McDonald and M Maloney
Griffith University, Australia

South East Queensland is Australia’s fastest growing region. Its current population of 2.5million is projected to increase to 4.4million by 2031 (Queensland Government 2009). This rapid urbanisation and population growth, combined with its coastal topography and unique biodiversity makes the region the nation’s most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (IPCC 2007, PMSEIC 2007). Sea level rise, flooding, habitat loss, and water scarcity all pose major threats (PMSEIC 2007).

The “millennium drought” (Australian Government 2006) of 2005-2009 produced a water security crisis in the region. Dam levels in 2007 fell to 16.7% (Queensland Water Commission). Major initiatives were introduced to address water governance, supply and demand. The Queensland Government took control of water supply and distribution from a dozen local governments and created the Queensland Water Commission to centralise authority and initiate reforms to supply and demand management (Spiller 2008). Water storage and supply capacity was increased through infrastructure works, including desalination plants, new water supply dams and water recycling proposals.

A range of measures was also introduced aimed at modifying household demand. These included extensive public education campaigns and warnings about the region’s dwindling supplies, prohibitions on types of water use, and financial incentives for behavioural change. The measures produced major changes in water consumption: from an estimated 700 litres per person per day (Spearitt) in the 1990s, when water use was unrestricted and unmetered, to 140 litres per person per day at the height of the drought (QWC 2008). There is a range of anecdotal evidence that it also effected lasting cultural shifts in attitudes towards water and water scarcity (QWC 2008). This is borne out by the negligible increase in consumption that followed when heavy rainfall since November 2008 led to a progressive easing in water restrictions. The SEQ drought officially ended in May 2009. To date, household water consumption habits have not returned to pre-drought conditions and it appears that the behavioural and attitudinal changes achieved during the drought have persisted. A range of theories have been advanced to explain the success of these demand-side reforms over such a short period of time (Buth 2008, Cooper and Crase 2009, Shearer 2008, Gardiner 2009, White 2008, Roseth 2008).

Liberal democracies around the world have shown a reluctance to regulate individual consumption habits or prescribe certain standards for private property (Salzman 1997, Vandenbergh 2004), yet such measures may become more necessary if householders do not take their own steps towards adapting their homes and lifestyles for changing climatic conditions. Regardless of whether the Millennium Drought can be attributed to climate change (Australian Government 2006, Karoly, Risbery & Reynolds undated), the success of water demand management in South East Queensland in achieving profound and (it would appear) lasting behavioural change may offer valuable insights into how best to design and implement strategies for climate change adaptation more broadly.

Presentation (PDF)

G Kuehne
CSIRO Australia

This paper reports on research undertaken as part of a project aimed at helping irrigators to explore the options for adaptation to climate-related changes.
Semi-structured in-depth personal interviews were conducted during November/December 2009 with eleven irrigation farmers from the Loxton area of the South Australian Riverland. A graphic-elicitation method using five A4 mini-posters was incorporated into the interviews to further draw out farmers’ beliefs about climate change. Similar to photographs used with the photo-elicitation research method, the mini-posters were found to be useful for uncovering deeper veins of meaning, as farmers sought to explain what the images, charts and tables presented in the mini-posters meant to them.

For successful adaptation to climate change to occur, farmers first need to understand what climate-related risks exist through effective communication from scientists and others. Farmers then need to be aware of what their adaptation response options are.

This leads to the research aim which was, 1) to better understand the beliefs that farmers held about climate change, 2) jointly uncover and identify what adaptation options farmers have, 3) identify the influences on the decision-making of farmers when they considered adapting to climate change, and 4) establish how their adaptation responses varied according to their beliefs about climate change.

The interviews aimed to explore which adaptation measures such as: altered farming practices; improved risk management; and increased water use efficiency had been adopted (or considered for adoption) as a result of concerns about climate change.

The interview participants live in a semi-arid climate which, when irrigated, is able to achieve high levels of productivity. Prior to 2006-07 these irrigators always expected to receive 100% of their annual water allocation. The research was undertaken at a time when many of these farmers were fighting for financial survival. They were in their fourth year of low water allocations, and were also experiencing declining commodity prices which had exhausted the financial reserves of many. The responses that they have made to the severe reductions in water allocation, of the past four irrigation seasons have shown that they are capable of making changes to counter threats which are outside of their experience, when there is a return on investment to be made, and when they have the resources available to do so.

The interviews showed that farmers found it hard to even consider adaptation to climate change when the effects of the drought, and low commodity prices, meant that the survival of their businesses were at stake. Irrigators perceive that, in the short-term at least, the combined effects of drought and low commodity prices were of a much greater direct impact on them than the effects of all but the most pessimistic of climate change projections.

The interview results were also found to be influenced by the beliefs which farmers held about climate change. Most farmers expressed some uncertainty about the cause of climate change—preferring to explain any observed changes to the climate as natural variability, rather than supporting the idea of anthropomorphic causes.

This research finds that having farmers understand climate-change risks, and having them understand their available adaptation options, may not be enough to cause the desired changes in behaviour. To encourage the uptake of various adaptation options it may also require the use of economic incentives as well as a greater understanding of how, social and other factors interact to influence the decision.

Presentation (PDF)

A Taylor, T Devisscher and J Padgham
Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Oxford, UK
Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research, and Training (START), USA

Effective adaptation planning requires communicating climate change information with various social actors in a credible and relevant manner that builds determination and capacity to address climate risks and vulnerabilities. Climate risk information is one type of information to be included in a stream of information being considered when making adaptation decisions. Despite considerable progress within the research community in developing new climate risk information, communicating that scientific information and engaging with other kinds of information and ways of knowing pertinent to adaptation remains a challenge. In this paper we explore various pathways for communicating climate risk information, focusing on the processes and the content suitable in different contexts.

There have been few comprehensive efforts to develop climate risk communication approaches that would be sufficiently effective as to stimulate action on adaptation. Poorly developed communication pathways have resulted in situations of inadequate dissemination and improper interpretation of scientific findings of climate change risks, inability within the science and policy communities to fully account for local knowledge and local-scale needs and priorities, and missed opportunities to develop local capacity for understanding the larger scale dimensions of the problem and responding to climate-related threats.

Here we present recent efforts to address these shortcomings through the Advancing Capacity to Support Climate Change Adaptation (ACCCA) project, which developed and implemented participatory communication strategies for addressing the topic of climate risks with different stakeholder groups. The project was implemented through fourteen pilot actions in countries across Africa and Asia. We review the lessons learned from this project on the fundamental concepts of risk communication and principles of communicating effectively, both in terms of the process of engagement and the content of the communication.

ACCCA was based on the premise that building effective risk communication pathways requires fostering a process of social learning through active partnerships between scientists, policy makers, civil society representatives and members ofvulnerable communities seeking to adapt and develop in a sustainable, integrated, bottom-up way, rather than a relying on top-down “expert” judgment. In this sense, communicating about climate risks was understood as a critical process to fostering learning needed to address the challenges of climate change, drawing together people with different types of knowledge.

In general, the risk communication strategies implemented in ACCCA generated rewarding effects on several levels in that community concerns were given voice through multi-stakeholder dialogues with policymakers; the trainings and dialogues contributed to collective generation of knowledge and a growing realization of the implications of climate change; and the nature of participatory approaches to communicate risk gave a sense of stakeholder ownership over the learning process and engendered shared understandings and capacity for action. In addition to opportunities, there were a number of challenges encountered in presenting complex climate risk information in terms that are relevant to a potentially diverse range of stakeholders, in training individuals to develop communication methods and to continue the communication process, and ultimately in how to sustain and scale up the effort.

Some of the key lessons learned from the ACCCA pilot actions regarding effective communication pathways are:
• communication to support adaptation needs to be a two-way process, a dialogue rather than classic dissemination, providing an opportunity to negotiate priorities, meanings, framings and relevance;
• the communication process needs to be an inclusive one, empowering a variety of actors to make decisions and act;
• innovative processes of interactive learning are entry points and catalysts that enhance reflection and co-generation of knowledge;
• understanding of the local context and knowledge is critical; strategic use of space, place and time affects the
effectiveness of engagement (i.e. how, where and when people are engaged in communication affects the outcomes);
• catering for a wide range of stakeholders requires the combination of diverse approaches
that are tailored to the local needs and are specific to the decision context.
• scientific information needs to be presented in locally relevant terminology and time frames, dealing
carefully with issues of uncertainty and confidence so as to inform robust decision-making.

Presentation (PDF)

P Ashworth and A Dowd
CSIRO, Australia

Climate change has often been described as a “diabolical” and “wicked” problem. Latest projections from climate modelers suggest that the time for action to mitigate its harmful effects are seriously diminishing thus, leading to an increased need for society to adapt. There is no doubt that the failure of governments to achieve any real agreement at Copenhagen has sent unsatisfactory signals to many parts of society. However, our research confirms the majority of the lay public believes that climate change is an issue requiring urgent action from all levels of society. And in spite of the failure of Copenhagen to incite governments to act, individuals are proactively making changes to their own behaviours both individually and as communities to address the issue.

This paper explores the role of “adaptigators”, community activists leading others to take action on climate change through behaviour change at home and at work. It reports on a process that has been successfully implemented by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) to broker knowledge around the topic of climate change, mitigation and adaptation. Drawing on the theories of social identity, cognitive dissonance, risk communication and the theory of reasoned action the process brings together small groups of individuals (no more than 10) to progress through a series of climate related discussions in the comfort of their own home or workplace. The sheer nature of the process ensures that by enabling the groups to meet regularly over a 12 month period their social capital is increased. This in turn encourages them to openly espouse intentions to change behaviours which will help to mitigate or adapt to climate change. Knowing they will be asked to report on their actions at the next group meeting, encourages them to overcome the value action gap so often prevalent in behaviour change programs.

Although the program ostensibly set out to focus on changing behaviours for mitigation, researchers and participants alike became increasingly aware that it was difficult to separate mitigation and adaptation. This finding has also been reflected in the journey of many international policy makers who are now advocating for ways to bridge the gap between mitigation and adaptation as a way of avoiding creating opportunities for maladaptive behaviours.

The CSIRO process embeds multiple evaluation methods in order to provide empirical evidence of effectiveness. This includes longitudinal measures of beliefs, values, attitudes, behaviour and dissemination of knowledge. Along with quantitative results, this paper will report in more detail on the activities participants are implementing to “adaptigate” to climate change some of which include implementing new technologies, increasing water catchment opportunities through more rain water tanks, use of grey water to care for gardens and much more, identified through qualitative responses. In addition, the paper also highlights the success of the process for building social networks amongst participants and beyond.

Our future research will focus on developing more adaptation specific information to include in the current session materials as well as an adaptation only group session process for a rural context. Details of these developments will be discussed.

D Beard and D Gray
Department of Agriculture & Food, Western Australian Government, Australia

Farmers’ ability to manage climatic risk is critical to their profitability and sustainability and should be integral to all aspects of on-farm management. This paper describes our research which had the objective of scoping and documenting factors influencing farmers’ decisions relating to the management of seasonal variability and climate change risk. Its focus was on exploring the perceptions of farmers as well as those people in the supply and advisory network who could be expected to have some degree of influence over farmers’ decision making.

We have found that farmers’ responses to seasonal variability in WA are highly variable and depend on a range of factors such as level of exposure to and the consequences of seasonal risk, the risk profile of the farmer, age, use of appropriate technology and practices and levels of management experience and expertise.

Many farmers are uncertain about whether climate change is occurring, some denying that it is. There is a low level of acceptance that it is the result of human activity, reflecting a high level of uncertainty rather than widespread open scepticism. Advisors mirror these attitudes to a degree but are more likely to agree that climate change is manmade. Where climate change is accepted, many believe that current risk management is appropriate and adequate to managing climate change.

An examination of perceived constraints to improved adaptation to seasonal variability and climate change provides evidence that there are three key factors which are fundamental to understanding the reasons for the variation in knowledge, attitudes, skills, aspirations and the uptake of practices – the extent to which those practices are perceived to be adoptable, the effectiveness of systems, networks and intermediaries linking researchers with farmers, and extension and communication activities delivered as part of these systems appropriate to farmers’ needs.

These factors also provide pointers to ways to better assist the farming community to adapt, to build resilience and to respond effectively to climatic risk. Of a prospective portfolio of approaches, three examples can be cited. First, the private and public advisory sectors would collaborate to deliver a common approach, seeking to communicate information about climate change to the farming community and to identify strategies to encourage resilience within that community. Second, they would design a tailored program of activities, targeted at the agribusiness finance sector. This would enhance their confidence to engage with clients about longer-term planning for the impacts of climate change. Third, they would develop case studies showing how farmers have managed climatic risk, and deliver them using a highly participatory approach.

Several of these initiatives are currently being trialled as part of the DAFWA adaptation project, a WA State Government project established as part of its Priority Plan for Agriculture which has the aim of improving the adaptability and resilience of WA producers through the delivery of information, training and tools.

E Bichard
University of Salford

It is estimated that 5.2 million properties in England, or one in six homes, are threatened by floods. Within this number, nearly half a million properties are located in areas subject to a significant (greater than 1 in 75 years) risk of flooding. While many of these properties are protected through existing or planned structural defences, it is estimated that about half of the households currently in areas identified as at significant risk of flooding might remain unprotected. Furthermore, the number of people at risk of floodingis significant and is likely to grow with the progressing climate change as the projections identify increase in winter precipitation. Therefore, for many houses, property-level measures could be the only flood protection available to owners in the future. To date the uptake of property-level flood protection improvements in England and Wales has been minimal and less than 5,000 homes have adopted these measures. This is associated with the cost of these measures, which range between £4,000 and £30,000 per house and, therefore, is unaffordable to many. While the State’s expenditure on subsidies would not be feasible, incentivising the house owners to purchase and install flood protection measures could result in their better implementation. It has been found that non-financial incentives (e.g. vouchers for fruit and vegetables or free bus travel) can be more effective in influencing sustainable behaviour than financial incentives. They also can bring additional sustainability benefits. This paper addresses the maintenance and improvement of liveability of cities under the climate change. It reports on research carried out within the ‘Resilient Homes’ initiative which has been promoted and funded by the Environment Agency for England and Wales. The overall goal of the Resilient Homes project was to examine the potential of a Non-cash reward scheme to increase the adoption of energy-saving and flood protection measures by the house owners. Attitudinal telephone survey has been carried out with 1,043 home owners living in flood risk areas in England and Wales. The survey investigated respondents’ awareness of floods and perceived risk, their willingness to install and pay for flood resilience measures and their willingness to accept non-cash rewards for doing so. The results suggest that while cash incentives are the preferred motivation option for respondents, nearly 60% would be motivated to install flood- protection measures if they were offered non-cash rewards. The most popular rewards were vouchers for fruit and vegetables, followed by free meals at restaurants, while free bus travel was the least popular. There were positive associations between factors such as the level of concern about climate change, awareness of living in flood risk area, perceived future risk of flooding and feeling of responsibility for protection of one’s property, and the willingness to accept non-cash rewards. Interestingly, over 80% of those who would accept non-cash rewards would be happy with their value not exceeding the value of their investment into flood protection measures. In addition, those willing to pay more for flood protection measures were interested in lower value of rewards. These results suggest that non-cash incentives could be used to promote the property-level flood protection measures. Furthermore, considering the fact that respondents were content with their value lower than the value of their investment, non- cash incentives could be more financially feasible than cash subsidies. However, the level of people’s awareness of climate change risks needs to be raised first to increase their interest in the flood protection measures. The paper will conclude with the results of a trial conducted in a flood-threatened area of Greater Manchester where householders were offered a range of incentives. The paper will describe the engagement process, and the way in which the householders responded to the reward scheme.”

J de Chazal
Resource Management in Asia-Pacific Program, Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, Australia

This presentation makes two, fundamental, yet little acknowledged, observations about ‘facts’ and values in the context of climate change research and policy and elaborates on the important bearing these observations have on climate change adaptation. These proposals draw on some well established viewpoints within social science.

The first proposes that values can influence what are deemed to be ‘facts’ and vice versa. Scientific and social uncertainties associated with climate change science provide a particularly conducive environment to players making conscious or unconscious selective choices concerning what constitutes convincing evidence in relation to human-induced climate change.

The second proposes that values strongly determine belief in climate change and what are considered as reasonable and appropriate adaptation responses. This observation draws on the emerging public framing of climate change in terms of ‘believers’, ‘skeptics’ or ‘disbelievers’.

Both observations have an important bearing on public engagement with climate change science and associated adaptation policy. Two points for consideration are detailed below.

One is the emerging diminishment of public confidence in the science of climate change. Many of the skeptics’ arguments highlight uncertainties in the science rather than representing outright refutations. These uncertainties assist in fueling public doubt, where arguments along the lines of ‘given x is not as certain as has been made out, perhaps y and z are also not certain?’ get magnified and repackaged as disbelief. Public willingness to engage with climate change as a serious and urgent issue therefore decreases, with the possible implication that not just support for mitigation action is reduced, but also that there is less preparedness to take adaptive action. Some of the more direct refutations of the science, such as the ‘Himalayan glacier incident’ only serve to further amplify this present fall in public confidence.

Another is the importance of accommodating multiple perspectives on what constitutes appropriate adaptation responses within policy. Given the present uncertainties characterising climate change science, adaptation policies would benefit from being able to cater for the range of present views concerning climate change (‘believers’, ‘skeptics’, ‘disbelievers’). Similarly, adaptation policies would also benefit from being able to cater for the diverse and often conflicting range of views concerning reasonable and appropriate adaptation. This latter point is pertinent irrespective of the degree of uncertainty surrounding climate change. Deemed appropriate adaptations to climate change are necessarily linked to differing geographical impacts, uses and values assigned to environments, and the economic and cultural means to cope or adjust to changes.

These points have important implications for the framing of and underlying approach to adaptation policy making. One is that uncertainty about climate impacts, and consequently uncertainty about the relevance of particular adaptation measures, needs to be clearly explained. This area is gaining in profile, with a range of other scholars making similar calls. Climate change adaptation can then be more clearly understood as an exercise in risk management. Another relates to framing relevant policies in terms of both addressing an established environmental problem (e.g. drought) as well as addressing possible impacts associated with climate change. This ensures a greater chance of arriving at sound adaptation policy and supporting appropriate individual adaptive behaviours, with less interference from polarised debates between ‘believers’, ‘skeptics’ and ‘disbelievers’.

M S Chung, Y S Kim and G H Kim
Korean Health Industry Development Institute, Republic of Korea
Dept. of Food & Nutrition, Duksung Women’s University, Republic of Korea

Climate change has become a pressing issue all over the world. Accordingly, it is forecasted that a significant impact will be exerted upon entire industries including social and economic fields in addition to the natural ecosystem. In particular, the impact on the field of food safety by climate change is an important issue that is directly related to the nation’s health. Therefore, in order to implement a preventative system in response to climate change, we have surveyed consumers (1030 persons) and industrial sector actors (95 businesses) on issues regarding climate change and food safety. The results of the survey are as follows. In terms of the degree of awareness on climate change, 85.5% of consumers and 92.6% of businesses in Korea responded that ‘climate change is serious.’ As for the degree of awareness by consumers and businesses on the relevancy between food safety and climate change, 83.6% and 92.6% respectively responded that climate change exerted a negative impact to food safety. As for reasons for this, consumers’ responses included ‘inflow of new pathogens from abroad (37.7%)’, ‘increase of food poisoning (34.8%)’ and ‘increase in the use of agricultural chemicals (27.0%).’ Responses from the industrial sector included ‘food poisoning caused by proliferation of germs due to an increase in temperature and humidity (43.4%)’, ‘negative impact upon food production due to temperature increase and fluctuation in precipitation (9.5%),’ and ‘increase in the use of pesticides as a response to increased populations of crop devouring insects (6.4%).’ In addition, the industrial sector responded that the climate condition exerting the most impact upon food safety was ‘temperature increase (73.7%).’ In order to correctly inform consumers and businesses about the impacts of climate change upon food safety, continuous efforts will be necessary for information exchange and development of publicity methods.

N Keys
Sustainability Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast

Social change occurs at all scales and a better understanding of the factors involved in different contexts is crucial for responding collectively to complex problems such as climate change. Attention to the interplay of determinants at the collective national or sub-national levels has been the focus of most adaptive capacity research. However, recognition of the scale and context specific nature of adaptive capacity has led to recent interest in local, community, household and even individual pre-conditions for responding effectively to socio-ecological stressors such as climate change. In particular, processes of change operating through social networks, social learning and leadership have been identified, but there remain gaps in knowledge about how individual actions relate to collective response capacity and how complex global issues are translated into action at the local level. In other fields of research, such as community health, influential individuals occupying central positions in their social networks and key intersections between networks are targeted to increase the rate of attitude and behaviour change in a community. In such interventions the diffusion of innovations model (Rogers, 2003) provides a theoretical framework for connecting individual behaviour to broader social scales through networks and interpersonal influence. Similarly, the support or opposition to new ways of thinking and responding by influential individuals across the range of social sectors could be critical to developing effective collective response to climate change.

This paper describes the development of a framework used to identify influential individuals with demonstrated competencies and skills consistent with factors important to collective response capacity, across sectors within the Sunshine Coast Region. The results of an online survey used to consult over 1300 community organisations are discussed along with the methods applied to select a sample of opinion leaders with whom to explore their strategies for influencing social change. Finally, the significance of the research is discussed
in relation to achieving a better understanding of latent response capacity in regional contexts. * This project is part of the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative.

J Wiseman, C Biggs, T Edwards and L Rickards
McCaughey Centre, Melbourne School of Population Health, University of Melbourne, Australia
Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab, University of Melbourne, Australia
Primary Industries Adaptation Research Network, University of Melbourne, Australia and RMCG Consulting

This paper provides a critical overview of emerging strategies for exploring, visualising and communicating alternative social, economic and ecological futures and pathways. Such strategies are increasingly being used to help facilitate the behavioural and societal change needed to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

There is increasing evidence that behavioural and social change strategies which rely primarily on communicating the threats and dangers of climate change are likely to provide an insufficient basis for creativity and action – and indeed may at times accentuate responses of paralysis and disengagement. Evidence from a wide range of historical, public policy, sociological and psychological sources suggests that large scale transitions and transformations at social, community and individual levels often depend on the capacity to break out of ‘business as usual’ thinking though imagining and communicate alternative futures and pathways.

The paper will therefore provide a critical overview of strategies, methods and tools that have been used to engage individuals and communities in developing imaginative and transformative climate change adaptation responses. These will include:
• Scenarios
• Modeling
• Story telling and narrative strategies
• Visualisation (e.g. through visual arts, multi media and films)
• Simulation games (including computer games)
• Illustrative and pre-figurative examples (eg. (‘Transition Towns’)
• Citizen juries and other community engagement and deliberative decision making methodologies

Drawing on Australian and international examples we review the key characteristics of a variety of ‘imagineering’ strategies and their respective effectiveness in promoting rapid transformational change in diverse settings. We also summarise key challenges and obstacles including the importance of avoiding the technological and social determinism sometimes associated with ‘futurology’ techniques as well as the need to improve access to relevant data sets and technical skills. We conclude with some reflections on the relevance of these approaches to the broader political challenges of driving the national and global transformations needed to reduce the risks of dangerous climate change along with future policy development and research priorities.